In a special election, in the dead of winter, in a small town in Virginia, turnout to elect someone to a state senate seat will be small. In fact, when I spend some time phone banking to the voters in these areas, at least 2/3rds don't even know that an election is scheduled. According to this article, only 14 people have sent in absentee ballots in this election so far. So, sure, this is a red district where Trump won easily. But, honestly, if our grassroots team calls enough Democrats in the district and makes sure they know to vote on January 10th in this special election (or earlier by absentee ballot), we can easily steal this one away from the Republicans.